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Old vs New AI: Facing strong combo draws
EXAMPLE SCENARIO 4
The hand: hero called, the turn 4c and the river 9c were check down, and the preflop raiser won with a straight.
Hero defended the big blind with Ad7d. He flopped the nut flush draw and a gut shot to the Broadway. He is facing a bet and a call. It would be silly to fold a hand with good equity, but should hero call or raise?
Evaluation from the old AI = RAISE
Evaluation from the new AI = CALL
It is relatively easy to decide between a losing or winning line, or to fold when both lines are losing money. However when faced with strong combo draws, we have to determine which line wins the most and this task is much more difficult.
There are some factors which are influencing the decision to raise:
- Hero is out of position, a raise reduces the deepness of the stacks compared to the pot and therefore favors him.
- A raise would squeeze the preflop raiser and with a caller behind forces him to be honest, only staying in the pot with a very strong range.
- The button hasn’t showed much strength, only calling preflop and calling again on a draw's heavy flop. He shouldn’t have much of a hand.
- Hero’s hand has enough equity to get in on the flop: 40% against the Broadway. If he calls, but doesn’t improve, he might have a tough time standing more action on the turn.
However, there is a more compelling case to justify the call:
- The board texture doesn’t favor hero’s range. He cannot have AK for the nut straight and neither TT-QQ for a set, since he would have squeezed preflop. He can have two pairs or a lower straight, but they are not strong enough combos to balance if hero decides to check raise every time he has a nut flush draw.
- Hero is facing strength. The first player opened from early position betting in continuation into two players. The call from the button indicates he has something, for example PokerSnowie would have a set of jacks or tens in his range on the button.
- The continuation bet is for less than a third of the pot. This provides a very good price to call with a draw and there is less to win on a check raise.
- Chances are high that the call will buy two free cards. If hero calls and the turn is a blank, then it is tough for the initial raiser to keep on bluffing after being called in two spots. Additionally, if he is on draw, the button might be happy to check back as well.
- Hero is drawing to the nuts and he doesn’t mind keeping villains in the pot and drawing to a weaker flush. Whereas a raise would force a fold of all weaker draws and to call, or raise, with hands playing well against hero’s hand.
- Even after a 3bet the stacks are pretty deep and hero will have a tough time on the turn, either to get value when he hits, or to keep on bluffing when he misses.
Therefore because of the board texture I will go with the new AI and just call here. However notice how close the decision is, both lines are only separated by 0.08 in equity.
The hand: hero called, the turn 4c and the river 9c were check down, and the preflop raiser won with a straight. Even if he had lost, hero should be happy with his play. For a very cheap price, he bought two cards to draw to the nuts with good equity on the flop. Who knows what would have happened if he had check raised the flop?
With the old AI, PokerSnowie evaluations were very good for dealing with draw situations, however the new AI has improved and made these evaluations even stronger.